17 December 2025
Dear citizens of the Republic of Kosovo,
In recent days, news has been circulated in the media and online portals claiming that the end of this year will be accompanied by extremely low temperatures of up to –20°C, as well as snowfall, which has caused confusion and concern.
The Hydrometeorological Institute of Kosovo is the only institution authorized to issue such notices, based on Law No. 06/L-035 on Hydrometeorological Activities, Article 13 – Early Warning System for Extraordinary Hydrometeorological Events, and Article 28 – Issuance of General Meteorological and Hydrological Information.
Article 9, paragraph 2, among other things, states: “The official weather forecast and early warning of possible natural disasters of hydrometeorological origin for the Republic of Kosovo are issued by HMIK and are the exclusive responsibility of HMIK.”
Therefore, any other entity or individual issuing notices, forecasts or warnings regarding weather conditions is, first and foremost, acting unlawfully and, furthermore, is doing so in an unprofessional and scientifically unfounded manner.
Weather Forecasting Standards
Weather forecasting standards include the global rules of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regarding data, terminology and accuracy, with high reliability (80%+) for short-term forecasts (1–3 days), while accuracy decreases over longer periods. Standardized codes and criteria are used.
National Hydrometeorological Services are the competent institutions responsible for weather observations and early warnings.
The measurement of key atmospheric elements such as temperature, pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation and cloud cover is carried out using satellites, radars and ground-based sensors. Forecasters then analyze these current conditions using weather models and historical data to predict future conditions, issuing alerts (watches, warnings and advisories) based on confidence levels and specific risk thresholds.
Forecast accuracy: Generally high for 1–3 days (80–90%), decreasing significantly for 5–10+ days (around 50%).
1. Short-Term Forecast
• 0–3 days – 72 hours (Very accurate): Used for daily weather conditions (rain, temperature and wind) and represents the standard for public weather forecasts.
2. Medium-Term Forecast
• 4–7 days (Moderate accuracy): Large-scale weather patterns (heatwaves, cold fronts) can generally be forecast relatively well.
3. Extended Forecast
• 8–14 days (Low accuracy for details): Only trends are provided, rather than precise conditions (e.g., “warmer than average”).
4. Long-Term / Outlook (not a direct forecast)
• Weeks to months: Based on climate models (El Niño, La Niña) and expressed as probabilities rather than specific weather conditions.
Main Scientific Standard
• Due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere, reliable weather forecasting is limited to approximately 7–10 days.